Pre-Move Volume Estimation: Managing Uncertainty

‍Why pre-move estimates cannot be exact - and why that’s perfectly normal

Estimating the volume of goods in packed condition during a pre-move survey belongs to a class of problems known as decision-making under uncertainty.

This is not a flaw of the process, nor a limitation of the tool — it is a fundamental property of the task itself.

The school formula vs. real life

At school, we were taught to solve problems using a simple structure:

Given → Search → Answer

In pre-move volume estimation, however, uncertainty already exists at the“Given” stage — and cannot be fully eliminated in advance.

Sources of uncertainty

1. Uncertainty introduced by the shipment owner

At the time of the survey, the owner often does not yet know whether certain items will be shipped:

• furniture
• appliances
• heavy or valuable objects

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The final decision may depend on:

• whether the item can be sold
• transportation costs
• customs duties and taxes in the country of destination

These decisions are frequently made at the very last moment.

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2. Boxes and human behavior

A separate category of uncertainty comes from items packed into boxes:

• clothing
• kitchenware
• books
• toys
• linens

The number of boxes cannot be calculated using a formula.
It requires experience-based intuition.

In addition, people tend to be optimistic:

“Moving is a great opportunity to get rid of unnecessary things.”

In reality, when packing begins, parting with an old pajama or a box of books often turns out to be much harder than expected.

A logical, but incorrect, conclusion

Listing even a small portion of these uncertainties may lead to the conclusion that pre-move volume estimation is impossible in principle.

This view was quite common in the early 2000s - precisely when we began developing and implementing estimation applications.

So what is the secret sauce?

How did it become possible to create a tool that has supported millions of estimates over the past 20 years?

The answer lies in a change of methodology.

If we follow a scientific approach, the solution is based not on achieving maximum precision, but on a principle formulated by Lotfi Zadeh in decision making theory:

A strategy should aim to eliminate the worst possible outcome as opposed to
to achieving the best possible one.

What is the “worst outcome” — and for whom?

Examples of worst-case scenarios in relocation include:

• failing to record a 350-kg German piano with a cast-iron frame
• not checking truck parking availability
• overlooking book shelves or a fully loaded kitchen cabinet
• committing to ship a wine collection to a country with strict alcohol import bans and taxes.

These are not some minor inaccuracies or oversights, but rather catastrophic errors with disproportionate consequences.

The role of Voxme Estimator

Voxme Estimator is a technological implementation of the afore mentioned decision making logic.

At its core, it is:

• a self-calculating system
• based on a library of standard items
• with statistically average dimensions

The application does not replace the surveyor’s experience or intuition.
It helps to apply them by providing:

• a convenient data entry
• real-time recalculation
• a detailed professional report

The report format itself is the result of years of evolution and contributions from thousands of users working with their most demanding clients.

More than just a volume calculation

Long-term market use helped crystalize a clear understanding:

• estimates should be done using applications
• and the role of the application goes far beyond simple volume and weight calculation.

A relocation is an information game involving:

• clients
• agents on both sides
• transport and shipping companies
• customs authorities
• security services
• insurance companies
• relocation providers
• corporate clients

In this game, Voxme Estimator is a proven and effective tool for managing uncertainty rather than denying its very existence.

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